Navigating Rising Geopolitical Instability: Enabling the Next Wave of Decarbonisation

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Navigating Rising Geopolitical Instability: Enabling the Next Wave of Decarbonisation

• Deep into the second year of Europe’s largest war since World War II, global geopolitical tensions continue to rise. Tension has spread well beyond Eastern Europe, with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which risks spilling further into the Middle East. China’s military build-up and aggressive rhetoric threatens Taiwan, the South China sea, and the region more widely.
• Globally, divisions broaden as nations align themselves within various conflicts. Russia’s allies provide steadfast support in their war through the means of arms, munitions, and sanction evasion support.
• Energy prices remind us yet again that geopolitical instability, particularly with Russian and Middle Eastern involvement, disproportionately impacts the energy sector.
• Renewables—the lowest-cost substitute for these globally traded fossil fuels in many applications—are being deployed at unprecedented pace on both sides of the Atlantic and globally, despite CAPEX and grid access challenges.
• In OECD countries, much of the low-hanging fruit in renewables buildout is rapidly being harvested. We’re building cheap renewables in desirable locations and utilising existing grid infrastructure.
• The hard work of deep decarbonisation of the power sector remains to be done. This will include massive grid expansion, market reform to encourage efficient investment and operational decisions, and supportive policy that can encourage the next wave of fledging technologies.
• There remains a vast amount of renewable potential to be unlocked in rapidly developing countries like India and Brazil.
• The Aurora Spring Forum 2024 delivered a comprehensive stocktake of the current situation and provided a detailed evaluation of future implications.