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Nodal Dynamics in CAISO and ERCOT: Insights from our Power Flow Model

Key takeaways from the report include the following:

  • Past nodal performance cannot be used to guide the future. Nodal forecasts based on statistical regressions of historical trends do not capture the effects of future binary market decisions.
  • Aurora nodal add-on product uses fundamental SCED based power-flow modelling
    accounting for all known network developments, a view on interconnection queue additions and a long-term economics driven methodology to provide off-the-shelf bankable forecasts for nodal pricing across markets.
  • ERCOT and CAISO nodal add-on products provide EOS dashboard and Excel data books with yearly and monthly forecasts for all generator nodes of:
    • Around-the-Clock basis
    • Top-Bottom 1, 2, 4, 6, and 8-hour spread basis
    • Solar and Wind Generation-Weighted Average basis
  • Additionally, Aurora details all forecasted:
    • Capacity interconnections by substation
    • Transmission line shadow congestion rents
    • Network upgrades
  • Aurora nodal add-on product includes 100+ page PDF reports overviewing congestion trends and modelling methodology. Reports include in-depth analysis of historical trends in nodal pricing, detailed explanations of Aurora modelling methodology, explanation of market-level forecast results, and deep-dives on specific nodal insights.

If you have any questions or would like to learn more about our Nodal Add-On service, please contact Danielle Startsev (ERCOT) or Cat Clark (CAISO).

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