Key takeaways from the report include the following:
- Past nodal performance cannot be used to guide the future. Nodal forecasts based on statistical regressions of historical trends do not capture the effects of future binary market decisions.
- Aurora nodal add-on product uses fundamental SCED based power-flow modelling
accounting for all known network developments, a view on interconnection queue additions and a long-term economics driven methodology to provide off-the-shelf bankable forecasts for nodal pricing across markets. - ERCOT and CAISO nodal add-on products provide EOS dashboard and Excel data books with yearly and monthly forecasts for all generator nodes of:
- Around-the-Clock basis
- Top-Bottom 1, 2, 4, 6, and 8-hour spread basis
- Solar and Wind Generation-Weighted Average basis
- Additionally, Aurora details all forecasted:
- Capacity interconnections by substation
- Transmission line shadow congestion rents
- Network upgrades
- Aurora nodal add-on product includes 100+ page PDF reports overviewing congestion trends and modelling methodology. Reports include in-depth analysis of historical trends in nodal pricing, detailed explanations of Aurora modelling methodology, explanation of market-level forecast results, and deep-dives on specific nodal insights.
If you have any questions or would like to learn more about our Nodal Add-On service, please contact Danielle Startsev (ERCOT) or Cat Clark (CAISO).
