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NODAL FORECASTING

Instant nodal data and insights at your fingertips

NOW AVAILABLE for the ERCOT and CAISO power markets

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What is a Nodal market?

In a nodal market, electricity is traded and priced at specific locations, known as nodes, on the grid instead of clearing on a regional level. Prices can vary at different nodes, reflecting factors like demand, transmission constraints, and generation costs, allowing for more precise and efficient management of the electricity market. This creates the potential for lower overall power market costs, however, it can also lead to large differences in settlements paid to generators of different technologies and locations, especially if there are chronic or extreme transmission concerns.

Our Nodal Add-On service will allow you to understand underlying nodal drivers in evolving markets.

ERCOT Nodal Market

The ERCOT power market is an energy-only nodal power market that implements generator nodal pricing. With generator nodal pricing, prices, and dispatch are determined at the nodal level for each generator but settled on a zonal level for load. In the ERCOT power market, nodal prices can see an additional scarcity premium to encourage greater electricity production during times when it’s needed most.

Easier interconnection processes and volatile scarcity pricing make ERCOT a great option for developers looking for the right spot.

CAISO Nodal Market

The CAISO power market is a nodal power market that implements full nodal pricing, meaning prices and dispatch are determined and settled at the nodal level for both generators and load. In the CAISO power market, bids have a soft and hard cap at $1,000 and $2,000/MWh, respectively—as they are eligible to receive resource adequacy capacity payments in place of scarcity premiums—however, congestion and losses can result in LMP at a specific node far exceeding these caps to the marginal cost of energy.

Persistent congestion patterns throughout the CAISO grid as well as ambitious state procurement targets help to make CAISO a very competitive market with sizeable upside for developers who seek interconnection in the best locations.

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What is included in our Nodal Add-On?

Quarterly data and market reports forecasting nodal outcomes to 2050

Bankable nodal basis forecasts

Around-the-Clock pricing basis, Top-Bottom 2/4 hour spread basis, and generation-weighted average solar and wind basis on yearly and monthly granularity for all generator nodes

Key insights of modelling methodology

In-depth explanation of the various assumptions and modelling methodologies driving our representation of generation, demand, and network changes

Explanatory analysis of forecasted LMP in key areas

Heat maps, charts, and commentary to explain the drivers of our nodal basis forecast in regional deep-drives

Data in Excel

Easily downloadable Excel workbook detailing historical and forecasted results including capacity interconnection and yearly / monthly basis for all generator nodes

EOS Nodal Map

Historical and forecasted nodal prices available in EOS mapping tool and via Aurora API

Analyst support

Access to market experts to address any questions you may have on the insights presented in the reports
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Accompanying reports

Highlighting key regional trends:

  • Overview of the current landscape of congestion and nodal basis
  • Explanation of the calculations and drivers behind LMP
  • Details on our assumptions and modelling methodology
  • Deep-dives on forecasted region-specific trends
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How are users interacting with the Nodal Explorer?

Key use cases

Bankable node-to-hub basis forecast

Explore how the interconnection of new projects and commissioning of transmission infrastructure will affect nodal basis through to 2050.

Site scanning                              ‎

See capacity buildout by transmission zone and quickly compare which projects currently in the connection queue are located at the substations with greatest upside.

Technology assessment                              ‎

Compare how local congestion will affect different technologies such as offshore wind.

Transmission planning          ‎

View how all planned network upgrades currently affect basis throughout the forecast and see where new transmission lines could prove economic.

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Download our sample report

Preview our preliminary CAISO & ERCOT Nodal Add-On insights:

  • Historical trends
  • Modelling approach
  • Input assumptions
  • Market outlook
  • Regional deep-dives
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Download our sample report

Submit your interest today

Our team will be in touch soon to set up a walkthrough and answer any questions you may have.

Complete the form below to download a more comprehensive overview of our Nodal Explorer.