GB distributed and flexible energy scenarios report publication – H1 2020

Our scenarios for the GB distributed and flexible energy service have been updated for the H1 2020 report to reflect the effects of increased ambition on decarbonisation, by replacing the previously used high decarbonisation scenarios with two Net Zero-compliant cases.

The other scenarios follow similar themes as in the H2 2019 report, though some input assumptions have been adjusted.

Highlights from the scenarios report include:

  • Net Zero High RES scenario, with decarbonisation achieved through significant increases in renewable capacities, sees wind capacity almost double compared to Aurora Central, reaching 90 GW by 2040 along with almost 5 GW more battery capacity. Daily price spreads are on average 4% higher than in Aurora Central, benefitting batteries and raising their average gross margins by 10% up to 2040
  • Net Zero Mixed scenario, with decarbonisation achieved through a combination of increasing total carbon price and greater nuclear, solar, wind and gas CCS capacities, sees almost 100 TWh of extra zero carbon generation compared to Aurora Central in 2040. The shift away from fossil fuels increases electricity demand by an average of 7%, while high carbon prices decrease recip margins by 8% on average up to 2040, relative to Aurora Central
  • Smart Power scenario has a larger uptake of EVs compared to Aurora Central and increased smartness of charging, along with 4 GW of extra battery capacity by 2050. This results in lower price volatility and a drop in daily price spreads by 15% by 2040 relative to Aurora Central, leading to a drop in battery average gross margins of 8%
  • Low Gas Price scenario uses our low gas price forecast, with all other inputs remaining unchanged, though capacities are allowed to build on an economic basis. The scenario sees wholesale baseload prices drop by an average of 17% up to 2040 relative to Aurora Central. Recips benefit in this scenario due to lower marginal costs and higher running hours, while batteries suffer with margins reduced by an average of 12% up to 2040
  • High Interconnector scenario, with 6.7 GW of extra interconnector capacity by 2029 compared to Central, sees a reduction in CCGT capacity by almost 2 GW when the additional interconnectors come online. Due to higher availability of imports and marginal cost differentials, recip margins decrease by 8% on average up to 2040, relative to Aurora Central

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