We are pleased to present our latest GB renewables market forecast report for July 2020. This is the first quarterly update of the GB renewables reports and serves to refresh the analysis provided in our April 2020 forecast with the latest commodity prices, market and model developments.
Key findings from the report include:
- As a result of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, commodity prices and electricity demand are lower compared to values from April. Relative to the April 2020 report, gas prices and carbon prices are lower by an average of 2.0p/therm (or 4%) and £1.1/tCO2 (or 3%), respectively between 2020 and 2025, while demand drops by 5% in 2020 and 3% in 2021
- The lower demand and commodity prices decrease average baseload wholesale electricity prices by £1.5/MWh (or 3%) between 2020 and 2025
- However, post 2025, prices recover to levels seen in the April 2020 report
- Relative to the April 2020 report, average renewables capture prices fall by 3% between 2020 and 2025 due to the decline in baseload prices, but subsequently recover to similar levels as the April 2020 report
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