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This is a short research note on potential early coal closures in Australia and their impact: with Victoria’s Yallourn power station used as an example (relative to AEMO forecasts). We have released this research note in response to a range of factors that have created a challenging market environment for more marginal coal plants: additional activity in the NEM wholesale market from state and federal governments – particularly direct support for new entrant renewable capacity in VIC, QLD and NSW; low commodity prices leading to lower wholesale power prices driven by oversupply in oil/gas markets and COVID-19; amongst others.

While Yallourn has been used as an example to assess potential market impacts in this research note, our analysis indicates that coal assets in QLD and NSW may also come under pressure if the current operating environment persists.

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