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The Road Ahead for NYISO and ISO-NE: Long-Term Power Market Forecast and Implications for Investors and Developers

Key takeaways from the session include the following:

  • NYISO and ISO-NE are the two smallest US ISOs but are marked by complexity due to their ambitious decarbonization targets and substantial winter peak load growth.
  • We project NYISO to meet 70% renewable energy by 2040, falling short of targets. This requires ~45 GW of flexible generation by 2040 which will be made up of batteries and peakers or new technologies.
  • We expect ATC to increase in both zones in the early 2030s due to rising gas prices and demand; NYISO ATC depresses in the ’40s driven by solar and OSW, while ISO-NE rises.
  • NYISO solar GWA is at discount to ATC through 2050, driving uncertainty around indexed REC prices. Stricter peaker rule enforcement with no new technology depresses ATCs but increases system costs.
  • Further uncertainties exist around transmission buildout, demand growth, and market-level impacts.

If you have any questions or would like to learn more about our NYISO & ISO-NE coverage, please contact Adelaine Bhattacharjee.

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