With Poland’s 2026 Capacity Market auction three months away, we held a public webinar on 13 September about investment opportunities in Poland’s Capacity Market.
European climate policy has placed Poland’s existing power system under pressure to decarbonise, creating significant opportunities for new investors. According to our latest modelling , 23 GW of coal capacities will leave the Polish system over the next decade, driven by the exclusion of coal from the Capacity Market as well as high carbon prices in the EU ETS. We therefore project a need for 16 GW of new dispatchable technology investments over the next decade, primarily in the form of flexible gas assets procured by the Capacity Market.
The economics of such investments are looking promising. The Capacity Market provides 17-year contracts for newbuild assets and will continue to see high clearing prices in forthcoming auctions, while the wholesale market sees high prices and strong utilisation of high-efficiency dispatchable technologies. With extensive district heating networks and a liberalised balancing market providing additional opportunities for revenue upsides, projects can expect strong returns.
Watch our webinar recording where we address key questions about the future of these markets and dive into the economic outlook of typical projects.