Key takeaways from the session include the following:
- The pool price is expected to decrease in the short term driven by increased renewable capacity buildout, new market participants, and softening commodity prices.
- Renewable capacity will increase to 23 GW by 2050, supported by Investment Tax Credits, TIER credits revenue, and an increasing pool price after 2035.
- Thermal generation will be key for meeting Alberta’s future demand. By 2050, thermal assets will account for over half of the generation for 57% of the time.
- The enforcement date for the Clean Electricity Regulations impacts pool price and the investment case for renewables. Delaying the enforcement date to 2040 or 2045 results in reduced average pool price but extends renewables’ capacity to generate revenue from TIER carbon offsets.
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