Outlook On Renewable Energy Certificates In PJM

Renewable energy certificates (RECs) are one of the primary tools used by US states to enable the buildout of wind and solar assets. In PJM, revenues from RECs make up a material portion of revenues and drive investment into renewable energy generation.

We integrate REC market dynamics into our long-term forecast model; major price drivers include demand from state RPS targets, corporate decarbonization ambitions, and the ability to bring renewables online
Alongside our Central forecast, we present an upper and lower bound for REC prices out to 2050, capturing uncertainty and different pricing mechanisms
Aurora projects a shortfall of REC supply in the short and mid term due to constrained RES buildout and PJM’s interconnection queue delays
REC market dynamics have impacts for all stakeholders across PJM, including:
- Generators and financiers considering RECs as a stabilizing force for RES business cases
- Legislators working to ensure ambitious decarbonization goals can be met in the long and short term
- Load serving entities looking to fulfill legal obligations and procure an increasing amount of generation from renewables

Aurora’s PJM Power Market Forecast service gives developers, asset owners, and investors key intelligence for successful decision making via:

Quarterly data and market reports – recent market developments and full policy and technology outlook, with monthly price forecasts, capacity and generation mix out to 2050
- Data in Excel and on our online EOS platform
Quarterly strategic insight reports and group meetings on topical issues across the power industry, driven by client demand
Regional and technological detail – prices by hub and generation by load zone
Scenario analysis – 4+ consistent scenarios that reflect key uncertainties
Investment case analysis – costs and revenue streams under different scenarios
Regular interaction through workshops and bilateral support