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The Philippines

Crucial intelligence to understand the changing dynamics of the Philippine energy market

The Philippine electricity market and grid is in a period of rapid transformation. Ambitious government targets (50% renewable shares by 2040) are planned to be delivered by a range of policy mechanisms: Renewable Portfolio Standards for retailers, net-metering schemes, green auctions, and removal of foreign ownership restrictions.

At the same time, there are a set of challenges—some of which are unique to the Philippines, some of which are consistent across power markets—e.g., uncertainty about timing and extent of new transmission; rapidly growing demand given current per capita electricity use; declining domestic gas reserves; a moratorium on new coal; concerns about the deliverability of new wind/solar assets; potentially major market reforms to capacity and ancillary markets; and new technology solutions emerging for offshore wind, hydrogen, and more.

What you need to know about the market

  • The Philippines is likely to see high demand growth given historic trends and growth in both the population and economy. Demand growth may be limited by supply constraints—particularly build out of new renewables and firming assets, as well as grid constraints.
  • The evolution of thermal generation in the Philippines remains uncertain—the government has announced a coal moratorium, but it is unclear how rapid demand growth can be met given limitations to new renewables/battery/transmission build out, as well as declining domestic gas production.
  • A major Green Energy Auction Program (GEAP) is rolling out in phases to advance renewable investment profiles and meet national renewable installation targets. At the same time, there is a degree of cynicism as to whether all of these projects will be delivered and the extent to which they may be curtailed if building into weaker parts of the grid.

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