Key takeaways from the report include the following:
- PJM holds the largest concentration of data centers globally, with more than 4 GW located in northern Virginia alone, constituting >25% of national data center load.
- Although PJM expects Dominion’s data center load to grow to 15 GW by 2030, many growth drivers are highly uncertain and could dampen load growth compared to history. Our range of uncertainty extends from 9 GW to 20 GW by 2030.
- In our Central data center load forecast, gas capacity grows by more than 20 GW from 2025-2040, with RTO-average ATC power prices reaching over $50/MWh and capacity market prices clearing above $250/MW-day by 2040.
- Dominion ATCs reach more than $60/MWh by 2035 in our Extreme Data Center case (corresponding to 33 GW of peak data center load by the same year), with RTO capacity market clearing prices rising above $300/MW-day in the early 2030s.
- Top-bottom spreads may rise less around northern Virginia’s data center cluster than in southern Virginia, where most solar will be built.
If you have any questions or would like to learn more about our PJM coverage, please contact Kyndal Mayes.
