Crucial intelligence to understand the changing dynamics of the Polish power market

Background

Poland’s power sector is undergoing transformation, with economic drivers and European pressure causing a drift from coal reliance. Much of Poland’s ageing coal fleet is expected to be decommissioned, and the capacity gap must be filled by new sources.

High prices and falling CAPEX costs make subsidy-free renewables an option, alongside increasingly ambitious governmental policy. Conditions are ripe for investment, with almost 150bn PLN to be invested into gas and renewables projects over the next decade.

Challenge

Regulatory uncertainty presents significant challenges to renewables development in Poland.

The future of coal, governmental objectives for future RES auctions, decisions surrounding the 10h rule and even the government’s continued ambitions for nuclear build-out all make understanding the dynamics of the market more important than ever. Equally, the growth of intermittency in a traditionally fully dispatchable system requires thorough market understanding to ensure security of supply.

Expertise

We are at the forefront of Polish market modelling and forecasting. Our Polish Power Market Service subscribers receive a well-rounded package to manage and mitigate risk, and understand investment opportunities.

Bankable forecasts and analysis are underlined by a high level of interactivity with our team and influential subscriber group.

What’s included?

Quarterly forecast reports:

  • Wholesale market price forecast along 4 scenarios (Central, High, Low, Net Zero) to 2050
  • Capacity market price forecast
  • Price distributions, peak load prices, spark and dark spreads
  • Capture prices of CCGT, hard coal and lignite plants
  • Renewables capture prices (onshore wind, offshore wind and solar PV)
  • Capacity development, generation mix, interconnector capacity, capacity buildout, exports
  • Carbon emissions in the power sector
  • All relevant input assumptions (gas, coal and CO2 prices)
  • Analysis of key sensitivities
  • Data in Excel – all forecast data easily downloadable in Excel format

Unparalleled strategic insights:

  • Regular subscriber group meetings in Warsaw, in an intimate roundtable format to discuss our industry-defining analysis under the Chatham House Rule
  • The opportunity to network with senior representatives from utilities, investors, banks and Government
  • Strategic insight reports with quantitative deep-dive analysis on highly topical issues to help guide your most important decisions
  • Regular policy update notes with quantifications of the implications to help you understand the impact on your projects

Interaction with our market experts:

  • Bilateral workshops with our experts to discuss our research and forecasts, and understand the impacts for your business
  • Ongoing access to market experts to address any questions across European power markets
  • Regular subscriber webinars to keep you updated with our latest forecasts, along with key changes in policy and the market
  • Discounted tickets for the unmissable Aurora Spring Forum, attended by senior executives from across Europe

Our subscriptions offer comprehensive market intelligence packages for energy participants. All subscribers get company-wide access to our EOS platform: the energy market’s hub for critical analytics.

Group Meeting

Thursday 25 March, 2021
Subscriber-only event

Net Zero in the Polish power sector

We present potential pathways towards achieving Net Zero in Poland, for the first time integrating our hydrogen model into the Polish power market. We assess the roles of RES, nuclear and hydrogen in decarbonising one of Europe’s most emissive power systems.

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