Crucial intelligence to understand the changing dynamics of the Iberian power market

Background

Iberia’s power sector is radically transforming, with a steep increase of renewables, a significant exit of coal and nuclear in the coming decade, and flexible technologies to maintain security of supply and reach climate neutrality goals.

Sustained technology cost declines and rising commodity costs support subsidy-free renewable project economics, leading to opportunities in storage, hydrogen, and the careful structuring of portfolios that can reduce risk exposures.

Challenge

Planned renewable auctions in both Spain and Portugal reduce the potential for merchant projects and increase the risk of price cannibalisation.

Understanding and managing market risks, as well as the increasingly complex political landscape for renewables and storage becomes a vital component to investing, financing, and developing projects.

Expertise

We are at the forefront of modelling and forecasting the economics of subsidy-free renewables and complex auction structures.

Our Iberian Power Market Service subscribers receive the market intelligence needed to understand and make decisions around the key policy and market risks and opportunities. Bankable forecasts and analysis are underlined by a high degree of interaction with our team and influential subscriber group.

What’s included?

Quarterly forecast reports:

  • Wholesale market price forecast along 4 scenarios (Central, High, Low, Net Zero) to 2050
  • Market price volatility (price distributions, peak prices)
  • Capacity market price forecast
  • Capacity and generation mix and interconnector flows
  • All relevant input assumptions (gas prices, coal prices, CO2 price)
  • Renewables capture prices (onshore wind, offshore wind, and solar PV)
  • High and Low scenario, by technology, country and region, with in-depth analysis of regional installation of RES assets, cannibalisation rates, curtailment, and load factors
  • CCGT and coal spreads (dark and clean)
  • All forecast data easily downloadable into Excel

Unparalleled strategic insights:

  • Three subscriber group meetings in Madrid, in an intimate roundtable format to discuss our industry-defining analysis under the Chatham House Rule
  • The opportunity to network with senior representatives from utilities, investors, banks and Government
  • Strategic insight reports with quantitative deep-dive analysis on highly topical issues to help guide your most important decisions
  • Regular policy update notes with quantifications of the implications to help you understand the impact on your projects

Interaction with our market experts:

  • Bilateral workshops with our experts to discuss our research and forecasts, and understand the impacts for your business
  • Ongoing access to expert analysts to address any questions across European power markets
  • Regular subscriber webinars to keep you updated with our latest forecasts, along with key changes in policy and the market
  • Discounted tickets for the unmissable Aurora Spring Forum, attended by senior executives from across Europe

Our subscriptions offer comprehensive market intelligence packages for energy participants. All subscribers get company-wide access to our EOS platform: the energy market’s hub for critical analytics.

Group Meeting

Tuesday 8 June, 2021
Subscriber-only event

Aurora’s long-term outlook

In this session, we will present Aurora’s latest outlook for the Iberian power market and the challenges in reaching the government’s Net Zero goals. We will analyse how our forecast has changed in the past year and explore its sensitivity to some of the key uncertainties.

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How do I subscribe?

To enquire about our Iberian Power Market subscription, please register your details and our team will get back to you shortly.