Aurora Energy Research envisions the corridor developing around ammonia imports, which would be cracked on-site at the Dutch import ports.
NETHERLANDS (AURORA ENERGY RESEARCH)—Aurora Energy Research, the global power market analytics provider, has produced an in-depth analysis for the Dutch Ministry of Climate Policy & Green Growth and in collaboration with the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Gasunie, Port of Rotterdam, Groningen Seaports, and Invest International. Presented during a roundtable session at the World Hydrogen Summit last week, it highlights the growing potential for a green hydrogen corridor between Northeast Brazil and the Netherlands, poised to meet import demand by 2030. The study underscores the Netherlands’ urgent need for green hydrogen to meet its decarbonisation targets, with a significant portion of future demand expected to be met through imports.
The analysis estimates that the demand for the Corridor would be 0.58 Mt/year by 2030 and 3.36 Mt/year by 2040. Relying on the assumption that critical infrastructure to enable the corridor is provided, Aurora Energy Research estimates that a corridor connecting Northeast Brazil to the Netherlands could potentially meet the country’s import demand, including demand for neighbouring countries to a certain degree, by 2030, with a substantial share of demand met by 2040. For this to be materialised, collaboration and coordination among several players in the value chain is required.
Northeast Brazil is well-positioned to produce and export green hydrogen, benefiting from strong renewable energy expansion potential, competitive costs of the production of green hydrogen compared to other potential hubs, and favourable government regulatory plans. Aurora Energy Research envisions the corridor developing around ammonia imports, which would be partially cracked on-site at Dutch import ports, with some volumes potentially used directly. For example, in fertilizer production.
To facilitate the development of this corridor, it will be crucial to secure supply by stimulating project development, introducing additional regulatory initiatives, and securing early offtake contracts. Again, the study highlights that the success of this initiative hinges on the development of critical infrastructure: in Brazil, to connect hydrogen developers with key export ports, and in the Netherlands, to import and crack ammonia and distribute the green hydrogen to consumers both in the Netherlands and neighboring countries.
Rodrigo Borges, Market Lead, Brazil at Aurora Energy Research, says:
“Northeast Brazil stands out as a promising hub for green hydrogen production and export. Its rising share of renewable energy and competitive cost base make it a natural candidate for large-scale deployment. Our study highlights the opportunity to establish a strategic green hydrogen corridor connecting Northeast Brazil to the Netherlands, reinforcing Brazil’s role in the global energy transition.
“To make this corridor a reality, a wide range of stakeholders must work together on a strategic action plan focused on three priorities: securing long-term offtake agreements, accelerating infrastructure development, and consolidating distribution capabilities.”
Jesse Hettema, Head of Netherlands and Belgium at Aurora Energy Research, says:
“To fully decarbonise the Dutch economy, we must secure access to scalable, cost-effective green molecules. Imports of hydrogen derivatives, such as ammonia, offer a competitive solution alongside domestic production, especially when directly used. Establishing a green hydrogen corridor with Northeast Brazil, leveraging the Netherlands’ strategic position as an import and distribution hub, can accelerate our energy transition while strengthening our role as a key gateway for renewable energy in Europe.”
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ABOUT AURORA ENERGY RESEARCH
Established in 2013, Aurora Energy Research is a leading global provider of power market forecasting and analytics for critical investment and financing decisions. Headquartered in Oxford, we operate out of 16 offices worldwide covering Europe, North & South America, Asia, and Australia. Our comprehensive services include market outlook packages for energy industry participants, advisory support, and innovative software solutions. We foster diversity with a team of 900 experts with backgrounds in energy, finance, and consulting, offering unparalleled expertise across power, renewables, storage, hydrogen, carbon, and fossil commodities. Our mission is to ease the global energy transition through widely trusted quantitative analysis and high-quality decision support.
