US Election: Implications for Gas and Power Markets

Note: This is a condensed version of our subscriber-only session.

The next U.S. presidential election will take place on November 5, 2024. Kamala Harris (D) and Donald Trump (R), the two main candidates, hold contrasting views on energy policy, which can be seen in their campaign messaging. While specific federal policy details remain sparse, the actions of previous administrations provide insight into the likely direction of their future presidencies.

We will present results from modelled scenarios exploring the likely implications of both a Trump and Harris presidency, along with sensitivities with more significant policy change. The Trump presidency scenario focuses on expected actions such as increasing tariffs on Chinese goods, greater support for operational coal plants, and reducing electric vehicle subsidies. In contrast, the Harris presidency scenario is centered on tightening LNG permitting regulations. Additionally, we will explore sensitivities with greater climate ambition and the possible repeal of renewable tax credit support, highlighting a range of less probable but still possible outcomes.

The session will explore these scenarios by analyzing natural gas prices and their impact on power markets, including price trends and capacity mixes across U.S. ISOs through 2040.

If you have any questions about the content, please get in touch with Kyndal Mayes.

If you have any questions regarding the subscriber session or registration, please contact Chiara Boye.