Shifting Currents: Nodal Price Forecasting and Grid Congestion in NYISO

Historically, New York ISO prices have followed a clear pattern—lower prices upstate, driven by abundant hydro and relatively lower demand, and higher prices downstate, where transmission constraints, concentrated load, and aging gas capacity create persistent congestion. However, the situation is evolving.

Offshore wind development and major transmission projects, such as the $6B Champlain Hudson Power Express (CHPE), are set to inject new supply into downstate markets. However, thermal retirements, delays in offshore wind projects, and challenges related to international power trade introduce uncertainty to expectations for future nodal basis.

• In this session, we will analyze how these shifting dynamics could impact nodal prices and congestion across NYISO, touching on the following questions:
• How has nodal basis varied historically across New York, and how do we forecast these dynamics to change?
• How will the addition of offshore wind capacity impact congestion and nodal pricing in downstate regions?
• What role do strategic transmission investments play in reshaping New York’s nodal price landscape?
• How could CHPE help ease congestion, and what are the potential implications for NYISO if delays arise due to tariffs or import/export constraints?

 
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