MISO Market Outlook: Coal Retirements and Resource Adequacy Concerns

Over the past year, MISO has implemented a range of market reforms aimed at enhancing efficiency and reliability. A key development is the approval of the interconnection queue cap by FERC, which is now being applied in the currently open DPP-2025 cycle. The challenges posed by rapid coal retirements and delays in capacity construction are evident, as reflected in the record-high Planning Resource Auction (PRA) prices for the Planning Year 2025/26, which exceeded $200/MW-Day on an annualized basis.

During this session, we will delve into the following topics:

• Analysis of the 2025/26 PRA Results:
  • What are the latest PRA results, and what factors contributed to this year’s elevated capacity clearing prices?
  • How do capacity clearing prices and Capacity Market participation vary across different zones?
• MISO Market and Technology Outlook:
  • What are the forecasts for load growth, capacity mix, ATC prices, and Capacity Market prices according to our Aurora Central scenario?
  • How does the investment case for batteries in MISO evolve under different resource adequacy scenarios?
• Coal Retirements:
  • Which regions are experiencing the most planned and economic coal retirements, and what is their impact on MISO’s resource adequacy?
  • What factors might lead to delays in coal retirements, and in which areas could these delays occur?
  • How will delayed coal retirements affect MISO’s pricing and capacity mix in the future?

   

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