Europe emerges from winter with gas reserves at a mere 34% capacity—a stark 25-point decline from last year’s levels. This concerning depletion stems from an unusually harsh winter, inconsistent renewable generation, and the complete cessation of Russian gas flows through Ukraine since 31 December.
As we approach summer, the restocking challenge looms large. Current futures pricing for summer delivery makes storage injections commercially unattractive, casting doubt on Europe’s ability to meet mandated targets. Nevertheless, the European Commission remains steadfast, maintaining its 90% storage requirement by 1 November to ensure continental energy security.
With pipeline flows facing growth constraints and continued production declines in the UK Continental Shelf and Dutch fields, Europe’s injection strategy will necessarily pivot to LNG imports. Three critical questions emerge:
- Will Europe achieve the requisite 90% storage threshold by 1 November?
- Might certain nations leverage available flexibility mechanisms to alleviate restocking pressures?
- What volume of LNG will be necessary to address the shortfall?
For comprehensive analysis, explore our latest report Europe Gas Markets: Summer 2025 Outlook, featuring in-depth examination of winter storage trends and key depletion factors, and summer sourcing and replenishing gas reserves.
