Restricting renewable energy projects would lead to a 14% increase in wholesale power prices by 2035 and up to 620,000 homes without electricity during a hot summer event, a Texas Association of Business commissioned report reveals.
Austin, TX (AURORA ENERGY RESEARCH)—Aurora Energy Research, a leading global energy market analytics provider, released a new report, commissioned by the Texas Association of Business, finding that restricting renewable energy expansion in Texas could increase electricity costs for consumers and businesses, while jeopardizing grid reliability. As demand surges, the findings underscore the essential role of renewables and flexible technologies in meeting ERCOT’s accelerating electricity needs, Aurora assesses.
The report finds that restricting renewable energy expansion would drive a 14% increase in power prices by 2035, translating to a 10% increase in power bills, and could leave up to 620,000 homes without electricity during extreme weather events.
To maintain grid stability amid growing demand, ERCOT has relied on a mix of renewables and flexible technologies like battery storage. However, with population growth, industrial expansion, and surging energy needs from data centers and bitcoin mining, restrictions on renewable energy additions could hinder its ability to keep pace.
Under a fully restricted renewable development scenario, the report estimates that power bills would rise by approximately 10%, adding $225 each year for the average Texas household and $6.3 million annually for a 100MW industrial consumer. Total system costs would climb by $5.2 billion.
Aurora’s modelling found that limiting renewables would increase the risk of capacity shortfalls and load shedding of 1.8GW to 3.1GW – enough to leave 360,000 to 620,000 homes without power during a hot summer weather event. Ongoing supply chain delays further threaten the timely addition of new capacity, including approved thermal projects.
Texas’ economic growth depends on cost-effective, sustainable energy solutions. The presence of renewable energy has made the state a prime location for energy-intensive industries, such as data centers and cryptocurrency mining, which prioritize low-cost, low-emission electricity.
Olivier Beaufils, Head of USA Central at Aurora Energy Research, commented:
“Texas is at a crossroads in its energy future. We need policies that support an all-of-the-above approach to meet the expected surge in power demand. Embracing renewables alongside flexible generation sources will help maintain grid stability, lower costs, and sustain Texas’ economic momentum.”
Glenn Hamer, President and CEO at the Texas Association of Business, added:
“As energy demand soars from artificial intelligence, data centers, industrial expansions, and population growth, Texas must continue to embrace an all-of-the-above-and-below energy strategy to remain competitive. Our continued leadership depends on reliable, affordable power—and that means keeping every tool in the toolbox to meet growing demand.”
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Established in 2013, Aurora Energy Research is a leading global provider of power market forecasting and analytics for critical investment and financing decisions. Headquartered in Oxford, England, we operate out of 16 offices worldwide covering Europe, North & South America, Asia, and Australia.
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