- Hydrogen electrolyser projects currently in development across the world total 957 GW, Aurora Energy Research’s latest global electrolyser database shows, although only 11% of these projects have advanced beyond the early planning stage.1
- Electrolysers scheduled to come online by 2030 total 202 GW capacity, up from the 270 MW that is currently operational globally. But 62% of the projects planned to be commissioned by 2030 have not yet advanced beyond the early planning stage.
- Electrolyser manufacturing capacity is set to surpass 30 GW/year by 2025, Aurora’s database shows, with 70% of planned capacity to be located in Europe.
- Achieving Net Zero2 by 2050 in Europe will require 1,900 TWh of hydrogen consumption, up from 300 TWh today, Aurora’s modelling shows.
While policymakers and commentators continue to debate whether hydrogen is the “silver bullet” we need to achieve Net Zero, developers’ commitments have ballooned over the past six months. The current pipeline of electrolyser projects totals 957 GW worldwide, Aurora Energy Research’s latest global electrolyser database, published with the bi-annual Hydrogen Market Attractiveness Report, shows. The pipeline has grown by 592 GW since April 2022 and dwarfs the 270 MW of electrolyser capacity operational today.
But most projects in development lack solid foundations. The Spirit of Scotia project in Canada has added 500 GW to the global electrolyser pipeline since April 2022, but does not yet have a targeted commissioning date. An additional 349 GW of projects are also yet to advance beyond the early planning stage of development, lacking key details such as specific locations, technology providers, or target milestone timelines, Aurora finds. The firm considers only 11% of the global pipeline to have advanced beyond the early planning stage.
Commitments indicate that, by 2030, global operational electrolyser capacity would reach 202 GW, but over 60% of this capacity reflects projects that lack key details. The projects in more advanced planning stages total 76 GW globally and Europe is the most popular location, with a 53% share.
Global electrolyser manufacturing capacity will rise to over 30 GW/year by 2025, up from 8 GW/year operational capacity today, Aurora finds. Europe is again the dominant region, with 70% of planned manufacturing capacity to be located there. Belgian engineering firm John Cockerill is positioning itself to be the largest global electrolyser manufacturer by 2030, followed by German industrial group ThyssenKrupp. If all manufacturers were to operate at their maximum capacity, 231 GW of electrolysers could be manufactured between today and 2030.
European hydrogen demand would total 1,885 TWh by 2050, under a scenario in which Europe achieves Net Zero by 2050, Aurora’s modelling shows. Regional consumption currently totals 300 TWh and is forecast to grow to 480 TWh by 2030. Aurora expects the industrial sector to account for over 80% of hydrogen consumption until the mid-2030s, with demand from the transport sector set to be roughly equal to industrial consumption by 2050. Hydrogen derivatives would account for 32% of total hydrogen consumption by 2030, and 33% by 2050.
Anise Ganbold, Head of Research, Hydrogen, at Aurora Energy Research commented:
“Hydrogen project announcements have not slowed despite today’s energy crisis. Instead, 115 electrolyser projects have been announced in the past six months. After excluding the 500 GW Spirit of Scotia mega project in Canada from the count, planned capacity globally is up by one quarter (+92 GW) since April.”
Dilara Caglayan, Senior Associate, Hydrogen, at Aurora Energy Research commented:
“Hydrogen can play an essential role in achieving Net Zero by 2050 in Europe and in the UK. But, with new project announcements coming thick and fast, we now need to focus on risk mitigation and commercial support to unleash hydrogen’s potential, and realise the 350-500% rise in demand that Aurora forecasts.”
1 Aurora considers projects lacking key details such as specific locations, technology providers or target milestone timelines to be in the early planning stage of development
2 Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions
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From its Oxford academic roots, Aurora Energy Research has grown to become the largest dedicated power market analytics company in Europe, providing data-driven intelligence for strategic decisions in the global energy transformation. We are a diverse team of more than 225 experts with vast energy, financial and consulting backgrounds, covering power, hydrogen, carbon and fossil commodities. We are active in Europe, Australia and the US, working with world-leading organisations to provide comprehensive market intelligence, bespoke analytic and advisory services, and cutting-edge software.
