- European gas prices could fall up to 9%, with Asian benchmarks potentially decreasing by 6% in 2030 compared to Aurora’s baseline scenario, according to its analysis on the impact of a Trump-driven LNG overbuild on global gas markets.
- US gas production may rise by 4% by 2030 to meet demand, though global exports could face challenges from reduced Chinese demand if Trump’s administration imposes his proposed tariffs.
OXFORD (AURORA ENERGY RESEARCH)—Aurora Energy Research, a global energy markets analytics provider, has released a new analysis quantifying the potential impact of the US elections on global gas markets. According to Aurora’s assessment, the new administration adds uncertainty to global gas markets and could push global gas prices down in the coming years.
Under Trump’s administration, LNG export capacity expansion could be swift if a Republican-led government decides to expedite LNG terminal approvals and ‘unleash’ American energy, starting with the removal of Biden’s LNG pause, potentially increasing LNG exports by up to 15% by 2030. The European gas benchmark TTF could decrease by up to 9% compared to Aurora’s Central scenario if this were to happen, while Asian gas prices could also decrease by up to 6%. To meet this demand for additional exports, US gas production is projected to grow by 4% by 2030, according to Aurora. However, international LNG exports could still decline, largely due to reduced demand from China if Trump also introduces his proposed universal tariffs.
Aurora has also released a new market report showing a considerable rise in gas prices across Europe and Northeast Asia around 20% in recent months, mainly due to growing Asian demand and limited growth in supply. While European demand has remained relatively weak, the increase in prices is primarily attributed to higher demand for LNG imports in Asia. This is compounded by uncertainty surrounding Russian gas transit through Ukraine from 2025. European gas futures for 2024 have risen by 12% since July, leading to an average 1% increase in Aurora’s forecast through to 2030 as the continent becomes even more reliant on US imports. This revision reflects immediate supply concerns, as Ukraine’s gas transit agreement with Gazprom approaches its expiration at the end of this year. Aurora believes that a Trump administration is unlikely to affect the expiry of the transit agreement.
In the late 2020s, an increase in LNG supply from the US and Qatar is expected to gradually lower prices. By 2030, Aurora forecasts a 7% reduction in European gas prices to €29/MWh, as demand in China and Europe slows. In the short term, export capacity from the US and Qatar is set to provide a stabilising effect on global supply, blunting the volatility of recent years caused by short-term supply disruptions, such as LNG terminal outages in Australia, production disruptions in Norway, and storage fluctuations.
In the long-term, Aurora’s analysis underscores that a combination of strategic LNG competition and production trends will shape price behaviour beyond 2030. Increased demand in Asia mostly driven by emerging economies will likely drive fierce competition for imported LNG, regardless of whether from the US or not, raising energy costs for Europe and other importers, while ageing gas fields and insufficient upstream investment in countries such as Norway and the UK point to sharp long-term production declines.
Jacob Mandel, Commodities Research Lead at Aurora Energy Research, stated:
“While Trump’s election adds uncertainty to global gas markets, it is unlikely that his support for traditional fossil fuels will have a significant impact on longer-term trends, which are largely driven by rapid energy demand growth in developing countries and decarbonisation in advanced economies.”
Arturo Regalado, Senior Analyst for European Gas at Aurora Energy Research, commented:
“Retaining Ukraine gas transit to Europe is uncertain but unlikely. It will require significant intervention of leaders from the EU, Ukraine, and Russia, and negotiations could fail to reach an agreement before expiry at the end of the year, before Trump even takes office. That said, signals sent in the coming months could still influence negotiations, as we have seen historically, with the current agreement signed just a day before the previous agreement’s expiry.”
Sophie Parsons, Senior Analyst for US Gas at Aurora Energy Research, concluded:
“The Trump administration would have no direct influence in directing LNG flows away or to the EU, but his administration is likely to remove barriers to LNG terminal buildout capacity that would increase exports, which would suppress European gas prices, as shown in our recent insight report.”
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Notes to Editors:
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Established in 2013, Aurora Energy Research is a leading global provider of power market forecasting and analytics for critical investment and financing decisions. Headquartered in Oxford, we operate out of 14 offices worldwide covering Europe, North & South America, Asia, and Australia. Our comprehensive services include market outlook packages for energy industry participants, advisory support, and innovative software solutions. We foster diversity with a team of over 800 experts with backgrounds in energy, finance, and consulting, offering unparalleled expertise across power, renewables, storage, hydrogen, carbon, and fossil commodities. Our mission is to facilitate the global energy transition through widely trusted quantitative analysis and high-quality decision support.
