Extending the lifespan of additional nuclear reactors, beyond Doel 4 and Tihange 3, could reduce import reliance, but uncertainty remains around technical feasibility, cost, and operational responsibility.
BELGIUM (AURORA ENERGY RESEARCH)—A new analysis by Aurora Energy Research warns that Belgium must scale up domestic renewable energy deployment to ensure energy independence, reduce electricity costs, and support long-term industrial decarbonisation, even with the new government proposing to extend additional reactors in a high nuclear scenario. The findings suggest that renewable electricity generation in Belgium will increase from 23 TWh today to 56 TWh by 2040. However, this growth may not be enough to meet surging electricity demand, which is expected to rise by 33% by 2040.
The analysis finds that, while extending the lifespan of the Doel 4 and Tihange 3 reactors reduces import reliance, uncertainty remains around the technical feasibility, cost, and operational responsibility of extending more reactors. Belgium faces considerable dependence on electricity imports, set to reach 17% by 2030, rising further by 2040. If Doel 1, Doel 2, or Tihange 1 were also extended, the import dependency would shrink in the medium term but not disappear, especially not towards 2040 when these reactors will be very old. Moreover, new nuclear capacity is not expected to come online before 2045.
Adding to the challenge, two major interconnector projects, intended to connect Belgium with the UK and Denmark, have recently been delayed or cancelled due to cost concerns. These delays undermine the country’s ability to import from other countries, according to the analysis, and further emphasise the need to focus on domestic renewables.
While solar and wind capacity are expected to continue expanding, they face a series of barriers. Solar revenues are declining, onshore wind development is hindered by regulatory and public opposition, and offshore wind is constrained by grid infrastructure limitations. Gas-fired generation capacity is set to increase, but high gas and CO₂ prices will restrict its role in the power mix, making it a costly fallback option.
Simon De Clercq, Product Manager for Belgium and the Netherlands at Aurora Energy Research, comments:
“Any scenario for Belgium’s future power system should be a ‘high renewables’ scenario. Even with further nuclear extensions, Belgium is expected to remain reliant on imports from 2030 onwards. This has significant implications for industries that require long-term price stability to make decarbonisation investments.”
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