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We have released our latest German Power strategic insight report – The EU ETS under the Green Deal. In April, EU leaders agreed on raising the EU’s climate target for 2030 from 40% to 55% (net) greenhouse gas emission reduction relative to 1990. Legislative proposals on how the new climate ambition will be put into practice are expected for July. One of the key reform proposals includes a tightening of the European Emission Trading System (ETS), which will put additional decarbonisation pressure on the power and industry sectors.

In this report, we assess the impacts of the EU’s new 55% emission reduction target on the ETS and provide an updated carbon price forecast until 2030. We analyse the detailed abatement processes taking place in the power and industry sectors, and showcase the effects of market and policy uncertainties. Furthermore, we discuss the impact of the new carbon price on the German power market with a focus on implications for the coal exit.
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