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Scenario Analysis of the Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on European Gas Markets: Can Europe Cope without Russian Gas?

As the ongoing Russian-Ukraine war escalates, Aurora has assessed possible scenarios and impacts on the European gas market. The webinar focuses on:

  • Europe’s reliance on Russian gas and coal: Russia meets around 30-40% of gas demand in Europe and is the largest single supplier. Russia is also Europe’s main supplier of coal, supplying over half of the total in 2021
  • Summary and timeline of the Nord Stream 2 suspension and Ukraine conflict, and immediate impact on gas and power prices
  • The impact of the delay to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, combined with possible disruption to Ukraine gas transit.
  • Assessment of a more extreme ‘no Russian gas’ scenario – including analysis of demand/supply balance for Winter 2022/23, possible measures to diversify supply and reduce gas demand, and associated costs and risks.


Watch the recording of our recent public webinar using the link below.

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