Polish power market forecast – November 2020

This report presents our biannual Polish power market forecast for November 2020. It provides our comprehensive view on the state of the Polish power market, including our latest outlook on power prices, generation, capacity and asset performance up to 2050.

Key highlights in this release include:

  • For the first time, we present extended Aurora Central, Low and High scenarios with a horizon of 2050 for Poland
  • In line with announced plans for an end to domestic coal mining by 2049, we have included a phase out of all coal generation by this date
  • We have increased the capacity of subsidised RES, in line with greater clarity around CfD auctions and more ambitious plans for offshore wind and rooftop solar
  • This update also reflects our latest fuel price updates. Coal and gas prices are more impacted by the
  • Covid shock and are also lower in the medium- to long- term due to a more pessimistic outlook on global GDP growth
  • Lower commodity prices cause a 10-15 PLN/MWh decrease in baseload prices in the medium term

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