Location, location, location: cannibalisation and locational drivers for I-SEM renewables business models and Ireland Capacity Remuneration Mechanism outlook – February 2021

We are pleased to present our new strategic insight report: Location, location, location: cannibalisation and locational drivers for I-SEM renewables business models and Ireland Capacity Remuneration Mechanism outlook 2021.

Our latest strategic insight report presents an overview of renewables price cannibalisation, with a deep dive into locational drivers and weather impacts for renewables business models. The report was first presented during a Group Meeting in February 2021.

Key takeaways from this report include:

  • Cannibalisation is a complex phenomenon, driven by three key drivers; size of supply shift, steepness of supply stack and demand response
  • Load factors are correlated with the average wind speeds and is one of the most important factors for distinguishing project viability, with regional load factors varying by up to 8.9% by 2040
  • Forecasted capture prices and cannibalisation levels are increasingly determined by site location, with regional capture price variations of up to 13% by 2050
  • Average regional RESS project strike price bids will range between €66 /MWh – €72 /MWh due to expected deviations in costs, production and capture prices
  • As renewable capacity grows in the system, weather fluctuations will increasingly impact power market outcomes and onshore wind capture prices by over 30% by 2050

 
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