Our ongoing EU Gas special topics programme analyses the impact on European gas markets of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. In this report we examine how a drop in available Russian gas export capacity, or supply, to Europe affects the European supply mix.
The report explores:
- European reliance on Russian gas and coal
- Nord Stream 2 suspension and Ukraine war, and impact on gas and power prices
- Russian gas transport medium-term scenarios:
- Suspension until 2025 of Nord Stream 2
- NS2 Suspension combined with disruption to Ukraine transit flows
- Full cancellation of Nord Stream 2
- Potential for congestion in Europe and shortages
Subscribers to Aurora products will receive more detailed scenario analysis including our forecasts for the impact on European gas prices with our annual forecast update.