German renewables market forecast – October 2020

This report presents our quarterly German renewables market forecast for October 2020. This quarterly update serves to refresh the analysis provided in our August 2020 forecast with the latest commodity prices, market and modelling developments. For more details regarding policy, regulatory framework and our modelling assumptions, please refer to the last annual full report (August 2020 RMF).

Key highlights include:

  • We have extended our forecast until 2050. Baseload prices continue to increase past 2040, peaking at 67 EUR/MWh in 2042 before dropping to 62 EUR/MWh by 2050
  • In light of the government’s commitment to support green hydrogen, we have introduced hydrogen into our forecast. Hydrogen exerts strong upwards pressure on baseload prices, and provides a significant upside for renewables capture prices (in particular for solar)
  • Reflecting the EEG 2021 draft adopted by the cabinet in September, we expect 10 GW more solar capacity and 2 GW higher offshore wind capacity for 2030

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