This report presents our quarterly German Renewables Market Forecast for January 2021. It provides Aurora’s comprehensive view on the state of the German power market, including our latest outlook on power prices, generation, capacity, and asset performance until 2050.

This quarterly update serves to refresh the analysis provided in our October 2020 forecast with the latest commodity prices, market and modelling developments. For more details regarding policy, regulatory framework and our modelling assumptions, please refer to the last Annual Full Report (August 2020 RMF).

Key highlights include:

  • We have taken into consideration the results of the first hard coal exit auction from September 2020. The auction resulted in the early closure of three of Germany’s modern coal plants (Moorburg A & B, Westfalen). We have modelled a corresponding new coal exit timeline, which is characterised by earlier market driven retirement of old hard coal plants
  • Relative to our October 2020 forecast, baseload prices increase only marginally by 0.2 EUR/MWh for each year on average. Until 2038, market-driven coal and lignite plant closures have a price increasing effect that is partially counterbalanced by lower gas and coal prices compared to our previous forecast. In the 2040s, prices barely change in comparison to our last forecast

 
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