GB renewables market forecast – January 2021

We are pleased to present our latest GB renewables market forecast report for January 2021. This is the quarterly update of the GB renewables reports and serves to refresh the analysis provided in our October 2020 forecast with the latest commodity prices, market and model developments.

Key findings from the report include:

  • Relative to the October report, gas prices in the short-term until 2025 remain unchanged as the upwards pressure on prices from higher demand due to a colder winter is mitigated by the appreciation in GBP/USD exchange rate (1%). The appreciation of the Pound also results in a slight decrease in annual gas prices of 1.5% (or £0.4/MWh) beyond 2025
  • The decrease in annual gas prices translate to a slight decrease in annual baseload power prices of £0.3/MWh (or 0.5%) relative to our October forecast. This is also observed for renewables, where capture prices for onshore wind, solar PV, and offshore wind register a small decrease of £0.2/MWh (or 0.4%) across the horizon

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