This quarterly update presents our comprehensive view on the state of the GB power market, and includes our latest outlook on prices, production, capacity, and asset performance to 2050.
Key highlights in this quarter’s update include:
- Our Central baseload price is forecasted to rise from £45.3/MWh in 2021 to £51.9/MWh in 2025, and £62.0/MWh in the early 2030s. The trend reverses beyond this point, and baseload prices start to decline to £56.0/MWh in 2050
- Relative to our October 2020 forecast, baseload prices decrease by an annual average of £0.3/MWh (or 0.5%) until 2050
- The slight decrease in baseload prices is due to lower gas prices – which have decreased an annual average of 1.5% (or £0.3/MWh) – due to an appreciation of the GBP/USD rates
- The UK Government published its 10 Point Plan for economic recovery and its long-awaited Energy White Paper: Powering our Net Zero Future which provide further clarity on the nation’s path to Net Zero emissions by 2050. Key announcements include the establishment of the UK-ETS scheme in 2021, a ban on the sales of all ICE vehicles from 2030, as well as a national target of 5 GW of low carbon hydrogen production capacity by 2030
- The CCC published its 6th carbon budget – the first carbon budget to be set since the legislation of the 2050 Net Zero target. The budget covers the period from 2033 – 2037 and sets an ambitious target of 78% emissions reduction from 1990 levels at an average of 193 MtCO2e annually
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