GB distributed and flexible energy scenario analysis – H2 2020

Our scenarios for the GB distributed and flexible energy service have been updated for the H2 2020 report to reflect the introduction of hydrogen to our Central modelling, by incorporating the addition of hydrogen demand and electrolyser capacities to our two Net Zero-compliant cases. The other scenarios follow similar themes as in the H1 2020 report, though some input assumptions have also been adjusted.

  • Net Zero Mixed scenario, with decarbonisation achieved through a combination of increasing total carbon price and greater nuclear, solar, wind, hydrogen and gas CCS capacities, sees almost 150 TWh of extra zero carbon generation compared to Aurora Central in 2040. The shift away from fossil fuels and introduction of hydrogen increase electricity demand by an average of 17%, while high carbon prices reduce recip margins by 5% on average from 2025 – 2040, relative to Aurora Central
  • Net Zero High RES scenario, with decarbonisation achieved through significant increases in renewable capacities, sees wind capacity almost double compared to Aurora Central, reaching 92 GW by 2040. Daily price spreads are on average 2% higher than in Aurora Central, which benefits batteries and increases their annual gross margins by 14% between 2025 – 2040
  • Smart Power scenario has a larger uptake of EVs compared to Aurora Central and increased smartness of charging, along with 4 GW of extra battery capacity by 2050. This results in lower price volatility and a drop in daily price spreads of 21% by 2040 relative to Aurora Central. Consequently, average battery gross margins are lower by 8%
  • Low Gas Price scenario uses Aurora’s low gas price forecast, with all other inputs remaining unchanged, though capacities are allowed to build on an economic basis. The scenario sees wholesale baseload prices drop by an average of 20% up to 2040 relative to Aurora Central. Recips benefit in this scenario due to lower marginal costs and higher running hours, while batteries suffer with margins reduced by an average of 12% from 2025 – 2040
  • High Interconnector scenario, with 6.7 GW of extra interconnector capacity by 2029 compared to Central, sees a reduction in CCGT capacity by almost 2 GW when the additional interconnectors come online. Due to higher availability of imports, recip margins decrease by 9% on average up to 2040, relative to Aurora Central

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