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ERCOT Recent Activity & Long-Term Outlook

Key takeaways from the report include the following:

  • The distribution of net load hours have shifted in the past eight years in line with increased renewables deployment and demand growth. The shift is away from moderate net load hours (ranging from 20 GW–60 GW) and towards lower (<20 GW) and higher (60 GW+) net load hours, reflecting high renewables penetration and the need for flexible dispatchable technologies.
  • The top 10 batteries made gross margins of more than $240/kW in 2023. Most batteries earned the majority of their gross margins from ancillary services, while some batteries earned a sustainable amount of revenue from energy arbitrage.
  • ERCOT’s load is projected to grow 11% by 2030. ERCOT has estimated an additional 24 GW of Permian Basin load growth in the next seven years, among which we consider 13 GW is achievable. Meanwhile, data center load will increase to 6.4 GW by 2030.

If you have any questions or would like to learn more about our ERCOT coverage, please contact Danielle Startsev.

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