Dutch power market forecast – H2 2020

As the Netherlands is about to kick off its first round of the SDE++, the subsidy framework for CO2 abatement, we present our first Dutch Power Market Forecast to run until 2050.

The report answers key questions for the long term:

  • How will the offshore wind and solar buildout progress beyond 2030, the year of the Klimaatakkoord’s targets?
  • What is the influence on Dutch capture prices of domestic renewables buildout and of German policy targets?
  • How is the SDE++ scheme set up and how are subsidies calculated?
  • What are the effects of the buildout of hydrogen applications on the Dutch power market?
  • Will the Climate Agreement’s emission targets be met, and is emission neutrality within reach for 2050?

In the short term, the Dutch power market will continue to be severely impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak. Since the release of the previous report (H1 2020), we have revised our gas price forecast slightly downwards, reflecting less optimistic GDP growth assumptions. The influence of these lower gas prices is felt by the forecast baseload prices.

As the medium- to long-term implications of COVID-19 are still uncertain, we will continue to monitor current developments and adjust our scenarios as required.

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