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Capacity Markets in NYISO and ISO-NE: Long-Term Outlook

Key takeaways from the report include the following:

  • Low prices in both NYISO and ISO-NE will persist through ~2030 due to strong reserve margins and low peak load growth.
  • By mid 2030s, prices are expected to rise in both markets, with newbuild setting clearing prices as existing generators retire.
  • Under current conditions, major uncertainties remain about whether newbuild gas or batteries will set the clearing price; transition away from peaking gas could drive down prices.
  • A slower transition towards New York’s decarbonization goals (marked by stagnant load growth and lower renewables build) would depress clearing prices; strict reliance on batteries would require subsidies which would lower capacity market prices.
  • Capacity accreditation reform in ISO-NE could increase prices in the long term; however, further rule changes are expected and could mitigate this effect.

If you have any questions or would like to learn more about our NYISO & ISO-NE coverage, please contact Adelaine Bhattacharjee.

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