We are pleased to present our Ireland I-SEM forecast for July 2020. This quarterly update serves to refresh the analysis provided in our April 2020 forecast with the latest commodity prices, market and modelling developments. The report presents an overview of electricity prices, distributions, capture prices, capacity and generation.
Key messages from the report include:
- Our Central baseload price is forecasted to rise from €34/MWh in 2020 to €67/MWh in 2025 and €73/MWh in 2040. The trend reverses beyond this point, with baseload prices declining to €68/MWh in 2050
- Until 2025, slightly lower commodity prices, combined with lower demand, place downward pressure on baseload prices. Compared to our April 2020 report, baseload prices are lower on average by €2/MWh at an annual average of €51/MWh between 2020-2025
- Between 2025 and 2035, the average annual baseload price increases slightly relative to our previous forecast to €1.5/MWh, as the downward revision to interconnector availability decreases the levels of interconnector imports from GB and France
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The next update of this report will be available in October 2020.