The 2026 T-5 Polish Capacity Market auction target was published on 12 July 2021. At 7.1 GW, the target is too low to ensure that sufficient capacities are under contract in 2026 to provide security of supply.
This is the first Capacity Market auction from which coal will be excluded by the 550 gr rule. Poor economics of coal units makes their exit from the system likely without further support, putting pressure on the Capacity Market to stimulate new investments. However, the low target means that sufficient newbuild capacities will not be procured.
Key points include:
- The 2026 T-5 Capacity Market target covers a far lower share of projected residual demand than historical auctions
- 3.3. GW (derated) of uncontracted coal capacities will need to stay online to ensure security of supply
- Coal units without Capacity Market contracts will require some form of subsidy to cover fixed costs
- Sufficient capacities prequalified for the auction to ensure security of supply while allowing for economic coal closures
