In 2024 alone, 1.7 TWh of renewable energy was curtailed—a 13% increase from 2023. Meanwhile, congestion management costs have surged, from an annual average of €390M (2017–2020) to €1.7B in 2023, and up to €2.5B in 2024, adding financial strain to market participants.
Curtailment remains highly concentrated: just 15 provinces, including Badajoz, Zaragoza, and La Coruña, accounted for 81% of all curtailment in the past three years. With hydrogen expansion and rapid wind buildout, these risks will continue to escalate unless properly addressed. Even with planned grid reinforcements, transmission constraints persist as renewable capacity grows faster than infrastructure upgrades.
How Aurora’s Spanish Grid Curtailment Forecast Can Help
Aurora’s Spanish Grid Curtailment Forecast leverages our new nodal power flow model, covering the entire Spanish peninsula. This advanced approach provides greater forecasting precision, helping investors and market participants navigate financial risks associated with curtailment.
Our methodology analyses curtailment at a nodal level while aggregating results into clusters, delivering actionable insights without unnecessary complexity.
Key Insights You’ll Gain:
- Granular Curtailment Forecasting – Identify constrained clusters by analysing historical grid bottlenecks and demand-generation trends.
- Cost-of-Curtailment Quantification – Assess financial impacts for investors, lenders, and asset owners.
- Scenario-Based Grid Evolution Modelling – Simulate how planned transmission developments will impact congestion through 2030.
Plus, an exclusive consultation with our team to explore how this analysis can support your investment strategy.
💡 To access the full report and databook, submit an expression of interest.
