Between 2030 and 2035, Portugal will experience a concentrated repowering phase.
MADRID (AURORA ENERGY RESEARCH)—Portugal’s onshore wind power sector is at the forefront of the energy transition, contributing 27% of the country’s power mix in 2024, according to the latest report by Aurora Energy Research. As home to one of the oldest wind fleets in Europe and the highest share of wind energy in its electricity mix, the repowering of the wind fleet in the coming years will face challenges but also shows a potential to expand renewable production. The initial wave of wind farm development, spanning from 2005 to 2010, reached 4 GW and is set to begin expiring by 2030. The Lisbon region hosts the oldest wind fleet, with an average age of 18 years, along with the north and the Tajo Valley, according to the global energy analytics provider.
Since 2020, the number of greenfield projects has declined, underscoring the necessity of repowering. Moreover, the most favourable wind resource areas are already occupied, primarily in the northern and central regions. However, Portugal’s streamlined permitting process enables repowering projects to enhance grid capacity, with repowering and overpowering classified as non-substantial modifications. This regulatory framework places Portugal ahead of Spain in overcoming permitting challenges, with wind generation projected to reach 35 TWh by 2030.
As Spain’s wind fleet, developed earlier, undergoes repowering sooner, Spain will temporarily export surplus wind energy to Portugal until the 2030s. Aurora expects that between 2030 and 2035, Portugal will experience a concentrated repowering phase, reducing its reliance on Spanish imports as domestic wind production increases. Over time, as repowering progresses, Portugal’s wind production relative to demand is expected to align with that of Spain.
Aurora’s analysis indicates that the repowering scenario is projected to increase capacity by 20% by 2030 compared to a scenario without repowering. With strategic regulatory support and advancements in forecasting technology, Portugal’s wind repowering strategy is set to enhance renewable energy generation, reduce dependence on imports, and reinforce its position as a leader in sustainable energy.
Powered by Aurora’s software solution, Amun, repowering improves asset economics due to higher load factors and CAPEX savings from utilising existing infrastructure. Amun has analysed the specific region of Beire and projects that repower earlier will increase revenues and decrease OPEX while facing a higher CAPEX compared to a delayed repowering. In 2026, CAPEX is projected to reach 1,440 €/kW, while OPEX after repowering is estimated at 39.9 €/kW/year—representing a 200% saving compared to the scenario before repowering in 2030. Despite higher CAPEX, Amun concludes that early repowering shows higher NPV and IRR, confirming that repowering is more profitable than greenfield projects.
Javier Pamos, Product Manager, Iberia, at Aurora Energy Research, says:
“Repowering Portugal’s aging wind fleet is essential for decarbonizing the country’s power mix. Repowering offers clear economic incentives for investors, and the country is leading the way with simplified permitting to support the transition. However, there will be challenges. Portugal must increase its buildout capabilities to renew its wind infrastructure in the coming years. Failing to do so could drive up electricity prices and emissions, putting additional strain on the system and the energy transition.”
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Note to Editors:
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Established in 2013, Aurora Energy Research is a leading global provider of power market forecasting and analytics for critical investment and financing decisions. Headquartered in Oxford, we operate out of 16 offices worldwide covering Europe, North & South America, Asia, and Australia. Our comprehensive services include market outlook packages for energy industry participants, advisory support, and innovative software solutions. We foster diversity with a team of over 1,000 experts with backgrounds in energy, finance, and consulting, offering unparalleled expertise across power, renewables, storage, hydrogen, carbon, and fossil commodities. Our mission is to ease the global energy transition through widely trusted quantitative analysis and high-quality decision support.
