French renewables forecast – October 2020

Key highlights in this quarter’s update include:

  • The baseload price is forecasted to rise from 35.2 €/MWh in 2020 to 47.7 €/MWh in 2025 and 53.5 €/MWh in 2030. Beyond 2030, the baseload price reaches 65 €/MWh by 2040 before to go down to 54.3 €/MWh by 2050 as additional renewable capacity enters the system
  • Relative to our previous update in July 2020, baseload prices have decreased by an annual average of 1.7 €/MWh (or 3%) throughout the forecast horizon
  • The key driver for the decrease in baseload power prices is a downward revision to our long-term gas price by an annual average 1.7 €/MWh or (6%) due to lower GDP projections
  • The gas price drop also affects renewables’ capture prices which dipped by 1 – 2 €/MWh on average across the forecast horizon
  • EDF raised its nuclear production forecast for 2020 to 315-325 TWh against 300 TWh initially, following better than expected outturns of the COVID-19 crisis that had forced EDF to review its reactor maintenance program earlier this year

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