Crucial intelligence to understand the changing dynamics of the German renewables market

Background

The rate of growth in renewables is radically transforming Germany’s power sector, opening the door for many opportunities and potential challenges over the coming decades.

Renewables economics work without government support! Sustained technology cost declines and rising power prices allow subsidy-free bids into offshore wind auctions, as well as announcements of PPA-backed solar installations outside the EEG subsidy scheme.

Challenge

All this challenges today’s investment strategy, financing, and commercialisation of wind and solar. Understanding and managing market risks, as well as the increasingly complex political landscape for renewables becomes a vital component to investing, financing, and developing renewables.

As an example, commodity prices and renewables cannibalisation form major downside risks to power prices and the business case of renewables in transactions or financing.

Expertise

We are at the forefront of modelling and forecasting this subsidy-free renewables future.

Our German Renewables Service subscribers receive a well-rounded package to help manage and mitigate risks, and understand the future potential of renewables. Bankable forecasts and analysis are underlined by a high level of interactivity with our team and influential subscriber group.

What’s included?

Quarterly forecast reports:

  • Wholesale market price forecast along 4 scenarios (Central, High, Low, Net Zero) to 2050
  • Capacity and generation mix under the EEG and market-based per region
  • All relevant input assumptions: gas prices, coal prices, CO2 price, renewables cost assumptions
  • Renewables capture prices in five wind- and two solar PV regions (onshore wind, offshore wind, and solar PV)
  • In-depth analysis of the regional installation of RES assets, cannibalisation rates, curtailment, and load factors
  • Forecast of imbalance costs, negative prices, and 6-hour-rule periods
  • Guarantees of Origin forecasts
  • Detailed assessment of the PPA market in Germany, including fair pricing methodology, price benchmarks for greenfield and Ü20 assets, and an overview of off-taker potential
  • All forecast data easily downloadable into Excel

Unparalleled strategic insights:

  • Regular subscriber group meetings in Berlin, in an intimate roundtable format to discuss our cutting edge renewable analysis under the Chatham House Rule
  • The opportunity to network with senior representatives from utilities, project developers, investors, banks and Government
  • Strategic insight reports on highly topical renewables issues to help guide your most important decisions
  • Regular policy update notes with quantifications of the implications to help you understand the impact on your projects

Interaction with out market experts:

  • Bilateral workshops with our experts to discuss our research and forecasts, and the impacts for your business
  • Ongoing access to market experts to address any questions across European power markets
  • Regular subscriber webinars to keep on top of our latest forecasts, along with key policy changes
  • Discounted tickets for the unmissable Aurora Spring Forum, attended by senior executives from across Europe
  • Priority access to our Renewables Summits, hosted in London and Berlin

Our subscriptions offer comprehensive market intelligence packages for energy participants. All subscribers get company-wide access to our EOS platform: the energy market’s hub for critical analytics.

Group Meeting

Wednesday 23 June, 2021
Subscriber-only event

Forecasting RES auction results in the light of increasing merchant tail and upside

Anticipating the winning bids in RES auctions allows developers to refine their bidding strategies. This meeting will focus on forecasting RES auction results in Germany and strategic decisions in the EEG auction scheme.

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To enquire about our German Renewables subscription, please register your details and our team will get back to you shortly.