Crucial intelligence for developers and investors in battery storage and flexible assets in GB

Background

The GB energy system is becoming increasingly dominated by renewables, leading to greater market volatility and system stability issues. Flexible energy technologies like battery storage, peakers or demand side response are well placed to solve these challenges.

Cost declines and innovative business models are enabling them to play a key role in the future.

Challenge

Flexibility is a huge opportunity, but participants face challenges from complex business models, policy change, and uncertain future revenue streams. In particular, the lack of contracted revenues for flexible assets creates a challenge in understanding and quantifying risk, impacting the financing of such assets.

An understanding of fundamental market characteristics, how to monetise assets and innovation in finance structures are required to successfully deploy flexible technologies.

Expertise

We have supported over 70% of GB installed battery capacity, over 2GW of gas recips, and worked with the largest DSR providers. We model complex revenue streams, eg optimised trading across multiple energy markets, and quantify and assess merchant risk and potential upside for project economics.

Our GB Distributed and Flexible Energy service provides subscribers with a toolkit and all necessary forecasts to understand and participate in flexibility markets.

What’s included?

Quarterly forecast reports:

  • Overall market outlook, capacity deployment and flexibility market size opportunity to 2050
  • In-depth review of market fundamentals, eg future price volatility and system requirements
  • Clarity on latest policy and regulatory developments, discussion of uncertainties and impacts
  • Detailed analysis of all key revenue streams (Wholesale, Balancing Mechanism, Capacity Market, Ancillary Service, Embedded Benefits)
  • Example investment cases for batteries and gas engines, detailing revenue stacking and gross margins under different business models
  • Information on key players, current operational capacity and project pipelines
  • Accompanying databook containing, until 2050:
    • Half-hourly wholesale price forecast
    • Balancing Mechanism prices (half-hourly on request)
    • Capacity Market clearing prices and forecast de-rating factors
    • Ancillary services revenues: FFR (average and overnight EFA blocks, STOR)
    • Embedded benefits and final consumption levies for demand connected sites
    • Capex forecasts for different duration batteries (0.5, 1, 2, 4 hour)
    • Gas, carbon, demand forecasts
  • Biannual scenario report exploring upside/downside cases and the impact on system composition and asset margins

Unparalleled strategic insights:

  • Regular subscriber group meetings in London, in an intimate roundtable format to discuss our industry-defining analysis under the Chatham House Rule
  • The opportunity to network with senior representatives from utilities, project developers, aggregators, investors, banks, network operators and Government
  • Monthly market summaries of key flexibility markets (frequency response, wholesale and balancing mechanism) detailing market outcomes and participant activity
  • Strategic insights and policy notes on key market developments, keeping you up to date and explaining the impact

Interaction with our market experts:

  • Bilateral workshops with our experts to discuss our research and forecasts, and understand the impacts for your business
  • Ongoing access to expert analysts to address any questions across the GB distributed and flexible energy market
  • Regular subscriber webinars to keep you updated with our latest forecasts, along with key changes in policy and the market
  • Discounted tickets for the unmissable Aurora Spring Forum, attended by senior executives from across Europe

Our subscriptions offer comprehensive market intelligence packages for energy participants. All subscribers get company-wide access to our EOS platform: the energy market’s hub for critical analytics.

Group Meeting

Wednesday 5 May, 2021
Subscriber-only event

Annual Forecast 2021

In this session, we will present our annual long-term outlook for economics of flexible assets.

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How do I subscribe?

To enquire about our GB Distributed and Flexible Energy subscription, please register your details and our team will get back to you shortly.